By Max Feldman
For the very first full 50 man Big Board of the 2021 NBA Draft evaluation cycle, I’ll break down why each prospect fell where they did. As college basketball nears a peak, the Big Board is fluctuating on a near daily basis. For the prospects that have a larger range at this point, detail as to why is provided. Narrowing to 50 is extremely difficult this early on, as there are nearly 30 more prospects legitimately on my radar that are not listed. There is currently a strong first tier of 9, followed by another 9. The top 18 slots appear very sturdy.
1. Jalen Suggs
Why he’s here?
Simply put, there is no reason myself, or any evaluator, should have a single prospect higher than Suggs. He is the clear cut top prospect. The full breakdown on Suggs was recently published.
2. Evan Mobley
Why he’s here?
We haven’t seen as talented of a big man come through the draft evaluation process as Mobley in many years. Monstrous wingspan, phenomenal touch, production as a roll man, near 4 blocks per 40 minutes and highly intriguing flashes of an outside shot. Do-it-all two way big man headed for stardom.
Why is he not higher?
USC is not great. He can fade out of the game temporarily and still has work to do in terms of making his presence felt on every trip down. In most other drafts, Mobley is the top prospect.
3. Cade Cunningham
Why he’s here?
Scoring production has been strong. Getting to the line at a high rate, very assertive and carrying a load for the Pokes as one of the nation’s best players. Touch is better than expected. Live ball passing is natural and can be a game breaking trait.
Why is he not higher?
I had confidence Cade would be far and away the best playmaker in the class, but a near 1:1 assist to turnover ratio has disappointed. I remain bullish on his feel for the game and versatile passing ability, but he has not handled pressure great. A poor surrounding cast does not doing his playmaking justice. Turning the ball over a bit too much. Regardless, he’s a lock top three prospect. Each of the top three are essentially 1A, 1B and 1C.
4. BJ Boston
Why he’s here?
Boston was formally my top overall prospect. I am not blind, I have seen the struggles too. Nothing is falling right now, and while many question his outside shooting, I have seen far too much of Boston prior to Kentucky to doubt his three level scoring. Even if it is not this year, BJ will get his grasp on efficient two way production. Defensive analytics are great thus far, and only will improve.
Why is he not higher?
Kentucky’s spacing is as poor as any high major in the nation. First, the guard play for the Wildcats has been horrific. There is not a playmaker or guard slasher who collapses defenses consistently. Secondly, Coach Cal has rarely has had 5 star prospects with builds like Boston and Clarke. It is more of a Duke-one-and-done build. Kentucky’s system is not built to provide space for creation at this spot, as the scoring production usually comes from spot up shooting guards and primary ball handlers. Lastly, Boston has simply been cold. His shot is not falling, but I am not near quitting on him like most who’ve dropped him to the 20’s. His two way outlook remains premier. For the full breakdown, read more here. The talent did not go anywhere, so don’t get that twisted. His system fit is atrocious.
5. Jonathan Kuminga
Why he’s here?
Shooting numbers from minimal G-League scrimmages provide some extra optimism, but Kuminga is still the youngest prospect in the field and is relatively raw offensively. He is my top overall defender in the class and carries a mature frame for a freshly minted 18 year old. The isolation mid-post scoring package is advanced. Finishes through contact with ease.
Why is he not higher?
I would not count out Kuminga rising into my top four, but I would prefer to see more evidence that his ball handling and ability to produce out of a set rather than isolation has improved. There is some OG Anunoby similarities in terms of offensive projected translation, so further development would raise his ceiling. Similarly safe floor for a super young prospect as Pat Williams in 2020.
6. Jalen Green
Why he’s here?
Generational athletic ability with a pure shooting stroke and higher IQ than most give him credit for. He has appeared to be an NBA ready scorer for multiple years already. Numbers out of the Ignite can not be given too much consideration, but I’d hope he is working even harder in the weight room. Tools to be a clampdown defender, but it will take time.
Why is he not higher?
His wiry frame as a defender, tendency to turn the ball over and inefficiency are concerns, but my main reason for having Green lower than most is because I do not think his skillset carries massive value in winning basketball. Whether it is a Zach LaVine or Anthony Edwards comparison, both reasonable, I do not think either one is a cornerstone piece for a NBA championship contender at it’s peak.
7. MOSES MOODY
Why he’s here?
He has been incredibly efficient filling the holes left by Isaiah Joe and Mason Jones, shooting 46% from the field, 42% from three and scoring 17 points a game in over 30 minutes per game. Smooth, natural three level scorer with phenomenal touch. Carries high volume but does not turn the ball over much. Not a playmaker, but has elite feel scoring the ball. I see a lot of Brad Beal similarities.
Why is he not higher?
Not an overwhelming athlete, has room to grow defensively and questions regarding his impact on wins. In comparison to Jalen Green, I have less questions concerning Moody’s impact on winning basketball because his usage rate will very likely be lower. Moody does not over-dribble, as he thrives off pin downs and spot ups rather than pure isolation. Top 12 is my range, and has reached as high as 6.
8. ayo Dosunmu
Why he’s here?
There is not a better lead guard prospect after Suggs or Cunningham. Ayo is one of my most improved prospects in the nation. Has improved his feel for the game and become a strong decision maker. High volume scorer and playmaker who gets to his spots with ease and has a proven ability to stuff the stat sheet. Elite size, great touch, defensive versatility, improved passer and high level activity on the boards. So much to like and he legitimately is improving every game.
Why is he not higher?
Being a Junior does not cap his stock too much, but the appeal and ceiling of the prospects ahead keep him outside the top 5. His range for me varies from 6-14 but should settle in around the middle. Not scoring at a high level, but continuing to improve going to his left in addition to driving the Illini deep into March will help.
9. Scottie Barnes
Why he’s here?
Extremely unique skillset with cemented toughness and high feel. Stat sheet stuffer who can be a key piece of winning basketball. Potential 4-5 positional defender. High level ball handling at 6-9 and 230 pounds. Has all the tools you seek in terms of potential mismatch machine, but requires polish.
Why is he not higher?
Polish, touch and decision making are major questions. Shooting numbers from the line and from three are terrible thus far. He was locked in at the 7 spot for a long stretch, but he has not showed me much that I did not already know. He will be an acquired taste.
10. day’ron sharpe
Why he’s here?
I continue to rise on Sharpe. Physically, he is ready for the league. Brute strength in the paint, solid shot blocking, strong athleticism and developed touch. Sharpe dropped 25 points and 9 boards in just 29 minutes last game against Notre Dame. If Kessler, Bacot and Brooks were not all there, more boards would have Sharpe this high. The more opportunity he earns the higher he’ll rise.
Why is he not higher?
His touch does not extend far outside the paint, but that prerequisite for success for big man is less of a theme now. The need for elite rim runners is at an all time premium, but there are more premier needs. Sharpe has a carved out slot in my top 12. His style of play is coming back into style.
11. James Bouknight
Why he’s here?
Far and away, the most polished pure scorer in the field. High flyer who’s production level has been sky high. Can fill it up at all three levels and has showed some defensive intensity. Development from Freshman year is intriguing as he makes the jump to the NBA, but should have a clear cut role.
Why is he not higher?
Not a natural playmaker who can be loose with the ball. 19% of his possessions come in spot ups situations, where he is in the 37th percentile. In every other offensive situation, he is in at least the 70th percentile. Simply put, he requires the ball in his hands. High volume young scorers require specific situations, limiting the ceiling at this point.
12. kai jones
Why he’s here?
He is a fantastic NBA fit. People will remain lower on Jones throughout the season because he does not start for Texas and has a low volume, but expect a massive boost during the evaluation period after the season concludes. Massively improved from last year as a two way contributor to winning basketball. Elite motor, great length and pogo stick athlete.
Why is he not higher?
He serves a key rim running role with energy and defensive versatility, but is unlikely to ever be a high volume scorer. His skillset is better fit to serve mass value in the NBA rather than Big 12. A ton of Christian Wood-esque tools are here.
13. ziaire williams
Why he’s here?
Silky smooth pull up game. Great length. Jump shot stretches from mid-range to deep three. Phenomenal defensive tools and strong instincts. Has become more assertive over the last two years, working towards finding a consistent production level to go along with volume.
Why is he not higher?
Scorching hot start only lasted a few games, and has gone cold since. Struggles separating from defenders with quickness and has gotten stuck in a spot up role. Better fit in the NBA than CBB but should grow more assertive as a slasher because he has the length, IQ and footwork to do so.
14. corey kispert
Why he’s here?
I do not see his ceiling as low as others. His shooting prowess can not be doubted by anyone, but what keeps him lower on some boards is his age and potential. Rather than being Duncan Robinson, I can see Kispert being closer to Klay Thompson. Regardless of the trajectory, floor spacing is a hot commodity and carries extreme weight in the NBA market. Snagging an elite shot maker with size to defend on a rookie contract is a prime situation for a competing team to move future assets and add an immediate contributor.
Why is he not higher?
As previously mentioned, being a Senior does play a role. He’s a two way contributor but is likely not a cornerstone. He’s an elite level spacer for a star rather than the star.
15. keon johnson
Why he’s here?
Electric athlete who has really impressed me defensively. High steal rate, showing signals of being a lockdown backcourt defender. Flashes of a shooting stroke.
Why is he not higher?
Rick Barnes plays Johnson less than 20 minutes a game. Shooting has been bad, and free throw percentage is not a possibility here, shooting just 58% on 3 trips per game. Carrying a massive range at this point, and has been as high as the 7th spot.
16. Greg brown
Why he’s here?
If Jalen Green was not in this draft, Brown would be the headline athlete. Strong flashes of ball handling and shooting, but needs more consistency. Activity on the boards and slithery finishing ability in the paint. Dominant transition weapon and supreme vertical floor spacer.
Why is he not higher?
Struggles have been evident. Touch has been very on and off. Has made turnovers a habit. Gets lost on defense too often. He has star power but decision making has been a major sore spot. Very well could end up in my top 14.
17. usman garuba
Why he’s here?
Instinctual defense and finishing ability are a joy to watch. Deadly from the dunkers spot offensively. Defensively, will thrive in a switch defense with his lateral quickness and toughness. Fits very well in the NBA.
Why is he not higher?
Garuba is a strong complementary player and does not carry star tools. He is great at what he does; grab boards, defend multiple positions, block shots, finish in the paint and provides burst in transition.
18. jalen johnson
Why he’s here?
Elite frame, powerful inside and strong handle for his size. Can guard 3-4 positions at the next level. High motor, shown by high rebounding volume. Go-to mid-range jumpers appears natural.
Why is he not higher?
Awkward scenario where he plays a wing role but has never been a reliable outside threat. When healthy, teams chose to leave him with room to shoot and rarely were forced to pay the price. I can not see him being a reliable shooter, thus making him a bit of an odd NBA fit due to his handle and scoring package. Very concerned with his lack of touch. 1:2 assist to turnover ratio makes it far different from a Scottie Barnes trajectory, as Johnson has notoriously been a ball stopper with tunnel vision. Has the range to slide back towards the top 12 if healthy, but has a lot to prove and could continue to fall for me.
19. roko prkacin
Why he’s here?
Smart, polished and versatile in the NBA. Producing at a high level for a very competitive team. Strong feel for the game and a more developed, consistent touch now after years on the radar.
Why is he not higher?
Average athlete. Can be loose with the ball and have tunnel vision in mid-range isolations. Heady slip man who has a role and plenty of room for growth.
20. Charles Bassey
Why he’s here?
Seen massive improvement in another year at WKU. Dominant interior presence, and signs of a solid mid-range shot. Great footwork, massive arms and shot blocking instincts. Motor has been an obvious area of focus.
Why is he not higher?
Competition level is a question mark. Star power is limited. Serves a clear role and has the tools for good production. Range can be as high as 16 and as low as 25.
21. jeremiah robinson-earl
Why he’s here?
Jay Wright products are always polished, and JRE just plays the right way. Has made a big jump and has fantastic footwork. Heady decision maker as a role man. Will be a more efficient shooter at the next level with spacing.
Why is he not higher?
Interior defense is not great and high end potential is a question. He is reliable, but not consistently dominant. He has been on the fringe of my top 14, but there are more exciting prospects. A competing roster with a rotational hole will love him.
22. JOSH CHRISTOPHER
Why he’s here?
Strong athlete, proven three level scorer and progressing as a defender. Gets to his spots with ease. Has been inefficient, but that is his game. High volume scorer who can fill it up with opportunity.
Why is he not higher?
Ball stopper. Constantly battling for volume with Martin and Verge. Can shoot a team out of a game. Has not been locked in defensively at all times. Candidate for a boost if he matures as a defender. Has the tools to be a useful two way scoring boost on a winning team. Defensive improvement could provide top 14 appeal for me.
23. franz wagner
Why he’s here?
Always had touch and natural offensive feel, but defensive improvement has boosted him from my 40 range. Young 19 year old as a Sophomore. Contributes to winning basketball, phenomenal feet in PnR coverages, active on boards. Takes care of the ball, efficient in every category. IQ is off the charts.
Why is he not higher?
Still wiry, but plays stronger than the scale shows. Slumped from deep to open the season but found other areas to contribute. Has room for another boost if assist numbers and defense continue to rise. Regardless of shooting numbers, the touch is there and should be accounted for. Should become more of a slashing threat due great length and heightened attention. Has the room to be a bonafide, two way stud if aggression improves. He’s on the brink of a top 15 rise.
24. cam thomas
Why he’s here?
Has been one of the nation’s storyline as a surprise, but I always been about 10-15 slots higher on Cam than most evaluations. Pro-ready scorer with elite, extended touch. Legit 50-40-90 trajectory.
Why is he not higher?
Defense is a question mark. Low steal and block rate. Not consistently active. Non-playmaker, but should open up with more attention in SEC play. Bucket getter, but if no two way tools are shown he is capping his stock to top 16 at best.
25. terrence shannon jr
Why he’s here?
Far more confident and efficient in year two. Locked in defender who can guard multiple positions. Long arms, explosive athlete, lateral quickness and hard-nosed.
Why is he not higher?
Touch needs improvement. Not a playmaker for others. Handle could use some improvement. Must see more urgency and feel to get to his spots. Has the tools to be a dominant slasher.
26. Romeo Weems
Why he’s here?
Sample size is small but 5/6 from three in Sophomore debut provides mass optimism. Elite athlete who can guard multiple spots. Should take on a higher volume. Mature frame with potential to be a high level rebounder.
Why is he not higher?
Polish needs more proof. Mediocre free throw shooter. Does not take care of the ball well and not a natural playmaker. Has room to shoot up into top 14 throughout the season.
27. Vrenz Bleijenbergh
Why he’s here?
Incredibly unique skillset for a 6-11 big. Too many people are unaware his game still. Taking on a larger role with Antwerp and shooting numbers are sky high. Fantastic feel and instincts as PnR handler and role man. Incredibly versatile.
Why is he not higher?
Narrow frame and just not recognized enough in Belgian League. Interior presence needs work. Motor can be a question mark. Evaluators will eventually get a grasp on him, but FOG remains the only platform with Vrenz on the radar.
28. jaden springer
Why he’s here?
Hard-nosed defender with a mature frame and good athletic ability. Strong mid-range game and is stunting high shooting numbers thus far in minimal volume.
Why is he not higher?
Better fit off ball at the next level from my perspective. Not a natural playmaker and is unlikely to consistently stretch the floor. I have had him as high as top 15 but his NBA role is unclear to me. Requires a fit alongside playmakers.
29. Tre mann
Why he’s here?
Has massively benefited from boosted volume. Fantastic at finding his own shot with great size. Strong, polished handle. Attacks the boards illustrating a high motor. More active defensively. Versatile contributor who elevates team basketball. Untapped potential as an all around creator.
Why is he not higher?
Major candidate for a massive boost into top 20. Has proved a lot, but could improve as a defender. Turns the ball over too much and fouls too much.
30. DAVID JOHNSON
Why he’s here?
High floor two way contributor who’s produced as volume increases. Fantastic frame and can play both guard roles. Efficient three level scorer. Defensive ratings are phenomenal.
Why is he not higher?
Would love to see him get to the line more and be more assertive. Has the tools to be a top 15 guy. Should be an immediate producer in the NBA because of the two-way polish.
31. joel ayayi
Why he’s here?
Elite feel and natural floor general who can shift on or off ball. Extremely polished on both ends. Come a long way defensively. NBA-ready, super high floor. Undervalued on a deep roster but brings winning value. Volume rebounder. Stat sheet stuffer. Sky high IQ.
Why is he not higher?
Does not have an elite ceiling. Wiry frame. Does not get to the line often, avoids contact. Takes great shots but volume is low. Safe decision maker but does not provide a ton of excitement, rather just super steady.
32. scottie lewis
Why he’s here?
Incredible athlete who is potent in transition. Has developed a solid pull up game and grown in confidence. Great length. Shines defensively as a lock down wing and backcourt defender. Hard-nosed, high IQ defender. Becoming a strong 3 and D candidate with great shooting numbers. Showing what I hoped we’d see in year one.
Why is he not higher?
Has all the tools to be a deadly slasher, but still tends to avoid contact in the lane. Needs more strength. Improvement of his ball handling is a massive swing skill for his stock. Signs are there, and that arrow might keep moving up.
33. Jared Butler
Why he’s here?
High IQ, productive lead guard who can slide off ball. Takes great shots, steady contributor who is a 50-40-90 candidate. Should have a long career at the next level. Defensive toughness, fantastic instincts, slides feet and use frame well. Natural floor general. High level shooter, playmaker and defender.
Why is he not higher?
Simply does not do much wrong, but ceiling does not appear incredibly high. If he can portray more as an off ball threat and athletically as a slasher, he will deserve a boost.
34. Daishen Nix
Why he’s here?
Pass first, dynamic playmaker who thrives in transition. NBA ready frame. Phenomenal feel for the game. Can dictate tempo with ease. Great touch inside the arc.
Why is he not higher?
Shooting has always been a question mark. Will benefit from taking the G-League route, as he struggles to separate from defenders and CBB would not have helped his case. Likely carrying a bit too much weight but does a good job curling off screens and getting to his floater game. He’s a long term case, as physical sharpening and shot repetition will take ironing out.
35. IVERSON MOLINAR
Why he’s here?
Stop sleeping. This should help explain more in-depth: Iverson Molinar Should Be a Household Name
Why is he not higher?
Polishing his passing skills would vault him into my top 20. Turns the ball over a bit too much and could likely carry more weight. Another rise candidate if he can continue to manufacture wins on a poor MSU team. Under valued talent who’s trending towards my top 20.
36. dalano banton
Why he’s here?
Elite feel for the game. Stat sheet stuffer who can rebound at a high rate and be a strong playmaker on the wing. Versatility is dynamic.
Why is he not higher?
Could use more strength on his frame. Shooting needs improvement. Many view his versatility as a negative as he does not fit a certain position in the NBA, but I am in the boat that Banton’s tools are the exact direction the league is moving. He’s floated around from 25-45, and showing improvement could garner another move up.
37. David Duke
Why he’s here?
Become a star as a Junior. Great size and legitimate scorer at all three levels. Carries a very high volume and has been dominant doing so. Sneaky playmaker who makes plays for others in transition. Heady scorer who senses defenses weakness, great feel.
Why is he not higher?
Steal rates are low and has to be more active consistently. Draft age does not help but the majority of concerns are defense related. Could see another boost into the top 30 if he capitalizes on a broad frame defensively.
38. Chris Duarte
Why he’s here?
Elite two way fit at the next level. Has a nose to pick passing lanes. Strong shooter who uses his length to attack closeouts and finish at the rim. Fluid shot stroke who can catch fire quickly. Can defend multiple positions. Constant two way energy. Legitimate 3 and D prospect with toughness.
Why is he not higher?
As quickly as he can catch fire, he can go cold. Draft age is poor. Duarte is not a playmaker for others.
39. terrence clarke
Why he’s here?
Long, athletic wing who has impressed defensively. Can be a smooth creator at times. Has shown flashes as a two way wing but needs more offensive polish. Very young. Has the tools to be a dynamic wing defender.
Why is he not higher?
Ball stopper, dribbles too much often. Has struggled with the poor spacing for the Wildcats. Narrow frame. Avoids contact when slashing, low free throw rate. Poor free throw shooter. Poor deep shooter. Plenty of tools but little to no proof in the pudding. Always been relatively low on Clarke because of his IQ, and the UK situation has not helped. Talent does not jump off the screen, numbers do not help.
40. alperen sengun
Why he’s here?
Dominating a league of grown men with efficiency. Active glass cleaner who has strong footwork. Good length and instinctual defender.
Why is he not higher?
I do not project a massive ceiling. He should be a productive two way big but does not excite athletically and can be somewhat slow in rotation. Knows how to play and produce in his role and I am not confident he could take on a higher volume. Not a floor spacer. Could see a boost in coming months if production remains.
41. Sandro Mamuklashvili
Why he’s here?
Phenomenal feel for the game. Extremely smart. Versatile skillset for the college game. Smart playmaker and great ball handler for his size. Strong shot out to the perimeter.
Why is he not higher?
Lateral quickness and covering NBA guards is the concern. Underwhelming athlete but Jokic-like skillset is difficult to ignore.
42. Juhann begarin
Why he’s here?
Dynamic athlete who can defend with intensity. Transition weapon who seeks contact and gets to the rim. Great size and physical tools.
Why is he not higher?
No signs of significant polish as of yet. Plenty of tools and room to grow but requires a ton of patience. Shooting does not appear close to reliable yet, but will be worth the risk for someone.
43. Marcus Bagley
Why he’s here?
When healthy, showed plenty of flashes as a versatile stretch shooter with athleticism. Stroke is fluid and thrives off pin downs, but shot choice needs maturation. Has tools to guard multiple spots and be a nice fit at the next level.
Why is he not higher?
Just need to see more and provide more proof. Thrives in a high tempo offense and can produce highlights but might just be a utility, offensive boost in the NBA.
44. Caleb Love
Why he’s here?
Speedy lead guard with a good handle and strong size. Gets to the line and has a good touch in the intermediate level. Solid passing instincts and can rack up steals.
Why is he not higher?
Has mightily struggled with spacing and shot is not falling. Been a poor game manager and has not taken care of the ball. Having four non-floor stretching, yet talented big men has consistently stuffed the lane. Could see a boost if UNC wings make a step forward and Tar Heels cement a more versatile rotation, but I do see how another year filled with new tools would help him come into his own
45. Mojave king
Why he’s here?
Fluid shooter with good size and an overall smooth offensive game. Natural feel for the game and gets to his spots. Extremely young.
Why is he not higher?
Defensive fit and motor are concerns. Might require another year in the NBL but has undeniable off ball scoring tools.
46. Isaiah Jackson
Why he’s here?
Active rim runner with explosive athletic ability. Volume rebounder and strong rim defender. Vertical floor spacer.
Why is he not higher?
Touch is a question mark, inside finishing has been inconsistent. Fouls too much. Feel for the game needs ironing. Low volume offensive threat. Poor free throwing shooting lends little optimism offensively.
47. jalen wilson
Why he’s here?
Great size and has displayed all the tools of a wing scorer. Seeks contact on slashes and swallowing up available volume. Gets to the lane often. Shooting has been streaky but can get to his shot off the bounce and on spot ups. Strong rebounding presence.
Why is he not higher?
Shooting has been inconsistent. Not a playmaker for others. Has a bit of a tweener skillset but has a relatively high floor for a Redshirt Freshman.
48. aaron henry
Why he’s here?
Elite defender with long arms. Great athlete. Hard-nosed, gritty and active. Transition weapon. Productive rebounder. High IQ on both ends. NBA ready defender.
Why is he not higher?
Scoring and shooting punch have always been the concerns. Ball handling needs work, does not create space with ease. Outside stroke is inconsistent. Draft age.
49. ron harper jr
Why he’s here?
Electric perimeter threat. Efficient against closeouts and struts phenomenal competitiveness. Gamer. Consistent floor spacer who can catches heat quickly. Highly instinctual with good feel.
Why is he not higher?
Needs to put the ball on the floor and attack the rim. Poor free throw shooter. Slow, clunky feet who fits better as a college defender than he will in the NBA.
50. Feron Hunt
Why he’s here?
Aggressive, powerful athlete with an incredible motor. Good length and great activity. Shaping into a fantastic NBA fit defensively. Active rebounder who does the little things. Vertical and at times, a horizontal floor spacer.
Why is he not higher?
Shooting is improved but not anything to write home about yet. Can fade out of a game and take a backseat. Ball handling needs improvement. Confidence and assertiveness would provide further optimism.
Front Office Gurus 